I am staying away from the traditional wager on this game. I think the Colts have the best chance to win, but question marks surrounding some key players such as Reggie Wayne and Dwight Freeney makes this a tough wager to make.
These two teams average a combined 49 points during the regular season, and that is with the occassional weak opponent mixed in their. The defenses should be more up to the challenge than most think. Thus, I am recommending wagers on the FIRST HALF UNDER and FINAL SCORE UNDER. One major sportsbook is stating that 70% of the public is on the over, which is why it has moved as high as 57 points. The hype concerning the anticipated “shootout” is going to be wrong. The overs of 28.5 and 57 are just too high.
Some props have caught my eye.
Take UNDER 16.5 POINTS as the largest lead either team will have in this game. If you figure this can be a close game, and I do, that is the bet to make.
Take DREW BREES to throw a TD in first quarter and third quarter. The lines on this are +190 and +170, respectively.
Take TOTAL FG’S – OVER 3.5 at +175. There will be fields goals in this game. Let’s hope for at least four!
Other advice is to look for situations you consider coin flips but the line is positive on one side. Take that side.
Good luck to everyone and enjoy the game.
Picking Winners One Play at a Time